Substack is done and dusted

On Lykhari I wrote about why you shouldn't start a Substack blog. Now, after much thought I believe that Substack is actually done and dusted.

You might think that it is talk of the town and the most hip blogging platform these days but hear me out.

The substack business model doesn't make sense. Knowledge has always been essentially free. Books pack a tonne of knowledge and very often life's work of people and sell for $10-$40 a piece. Books cost also include the paper, binding, distribution, publisher and writers get a small cut. Self published books have higher margins but are typically cheaper as well. Substack's minimum monthly charge is $5 per user per month. Now how much useful information can an individual possibly create in a month.

Substack and their founders somehow think that sending a newsletter to willing patrons is good enough to build a huge company. I am not saying it doesn't have a market. It does. Just like patreon or buy me a coffee. Why it is done and dusted is because they aim to become a goto publishing platform. They raised $100 million. Now to get VC's $100 million's worth back is impossible in the market Substack is playing in.

Substack is not profitable. Medium wasn't profitable either and had no clue what to do. They also came up with weird business model. Medium's business model was still less expensive for consumer than Substack. Medium is a thing of past. Substack will follow suit.

Substack has done many pivots already. Starting from a blogging platform to social media and now reverting on their stance on Ads. You can tell the founders are struggling and VCs has pushed the pedal of "go big or go home".

I've extrapolated all possibilities and there is none I can see Substack work. They might add Ads. A youtube like model might work but it still has to scaled down in terms of business. Youtube provide entertainment, music, education. Substack provides mostly knowledge or news.

Knowledge has to be free (or near free). There is no other way humans will accept it. Knowledge which is paid is biased to begin with and not worth it. It's only lindy.